Table of Contents:
see also: green business models
Hydrogen powered cars:
Hydrogen-fuelled cars, powered by fuel cells—electrochemical devices that combine stored hydrogen with atmospheric oxygen to generate electricity and water vapour.
The promise of hydrogen powered cars has been around for a while: in 1998, Mr Wagoner's predecessor, Jack Smith, told the Detroit auto show that GM had a plan to produce a production-ready fuel-cell vehicle "by 2004 or sooner". That same year, Ford's incoming boss, Jacques Nasser, said that he saw fuel-cell cars as being a viable alternative to petrol cars for many people during the course of his career (he was replaced in 2001). And as recently as 2004 California's governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, rhapsodised about "hydrogen highways" all across the state by 2010.
One thing holding back hydrogen vehicles is a chicken-and-egg problem: why build cars if there is nowhere to fill them up, or hydrogen filling-stations if there are no cars to use them?
How much more investment is needed to make mass-produced hydrogen cars a reality? According to a recent study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, sponsored by America's Department of Energy (DoE), public funding of $10 billion would be required to get 2m hydrogen fuel-cell cars onto America's roads by 2025, rising to $45 billion for 10m cars. A report issued by America's National Academy of Sciences in July was less optimistic, estimating that $55 billion of government investment would be needed to put just 2m hydrogen cars on the road by 2023. And both reports assume that the technology will get a lot cheaper: the Oak Ridge study assumes it will be possible to make fuel-cell vehicle systems in quantity at a cost of $45 per kilowatt of output by 2010, and $30 per kilowatt by 2015.
But, a huge problem still remains: the production and delivery of hydrogen in large quantities.
Hydrogen is "just about the worst possible vehicle fuel", says Robert Zubrin, a rocket scientist and the author of "Energy Victory", a book on the post-petroleum future. Even if the requisite gains in fuel-cell technology are achieved, he says, the fuel-cell cars of the future should run instead on methanol, which has a higher energy-density than hydrogen and can be stored and transported much more easily.
Dont believe the (oil companies) hype: They do not really believe that hydrogen power cars are "right around the corner".... Shell predicts that mass roll-out of fuel-cell vehicles is "absolutely achievable" by 2020; and the DoE maintains that fuel-cell cars will be "practical and cost-effective" by the same year. BP is cagier, predicting that it will be 2030 before a significant number of fuel-cell vehicles are in use.
Trend leading to interest in alt fuels
The rise in gasoline prices is only one reason for a resurgence of concern regarding the consumption of fossil fuels, especially gasoline and diesel fuels used by cars and trucks. Environmentalists are also putting pressure on car and truck manufacturers to clean up emissions. Efforts to respond to these concerns are taking many forms, including hybrid gasoline/electric cars, clean diesel technology and the possible use of hydrogen to power vehicles. There is also a renewed interest in electric cars, whether entirely powered by electricity or an electric/gasoline hybrid.
Potential Solutions
Natural Gas Vehicles:
Cars and trucks that run on either compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquid natural gas (LNG) are already widespread, especially in municipal fleets and school buses. Approximately 130,000 vehicles run on natural gas in the U.S.; worldwide, it’s around 2 million. Natural gas is an attractive technology, not only because it is highly developed, but also because it is economically feasible and environmentally friendly. While initially costing $1,500 to $6,000 more per vehicle than orthodox fuel equivalents, natural gas engines save approximately 15% on fuel costs, making the investment worthwhile over the long term. Emissions are 35% lower overall, and have much lower concentrations of polluting particles and harmful gases. Recognizing the possible economic benefits, UPS has put about 1,500 natural gas trucks in service to haul its packages, including test trucks running on compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas or propane.
Electric Cars:
GM launched the EV1, an all-electric vehicle, in 1996. Unfortunately, the car was a complete flop, and the $1-billion project was abandoned in 1999. In 2002, Ford announced that it would give up on the Think, an electric car model in which it had invested $123 million.
Times have changed, however, and in the face of expensive gasoline, many manufacturers are rethinking electric-powered cars. There are several low-production models currently on the market that run strictly on electricity. In the U.S., they include souped-up sports cars such as the $100,000 Tesla Roadster, which can go up to 135 miles per hour and run 250 miles per charge; and the $100,000 Wrightspeed X1, which can make 120 mph and run up to 200 miles per charge. With regard to acceleration, both of these models are comparable to top gasoline-powered sports cars such as the Ferrari Enzo and the Ford GT. The Tesla Roadster can accelerate from zero to 60 MPH in about 4 seconds! Another notable high-end electric vehicle is the Tango T600, made by Commuter Cars Corporation. For $108,000, drivers can take the two-seater (one seat behind the other) from zero to 60 miles per hour in about four seconds, and reach a top speed of more than 130 mph.
Tesla is a serious business startup, with more than $100 million raised in capital as of mid-2007. The firm hopes to introduce a second model, a five-passenger sedan, the WhiteStar, priced from $50,000 to $65,000, in 2009. Tesla has taken a simple route to solve the problem of storage batteries: the Tesla Roadster has 6,831 lithium ion, laptop computer batteries linked together in the trunk! Tesla Motors builds the Roadster at a Lotus Cars manufacturing plant in the U.K. The WhiteStar sedan will be built at a new, 150,000 square foot plant in Albuquerque, New Mexico, capable of assembling 10,000 cars yearly.
On the affordable end of the electric-powered spectrum are small vehicles that began several years ago as glorified golf carts. Recent technological advances, such as the use of lightweight, long-lasting lithium-ion batteries (the type used in cellular phones and laptop computers) have helped the vehicles evolve into marketable alternatives for short-trip driving. The ZAP Xebra, a three-wheel, four-door vehicle with a sticker price of $8,900, can reach speeds of up to 40 mph and have a range of 40 miles per charge. ZAP stands for “zero air pollution.” Chrysler’s Global Electric Motorcars LLC subsidiary offers several models, including vehicles with options such as heated seats, steel bumpers and cup holders. Prices start at about $12,500. Toyota sold an electric version of its RAV4 SUV for about $42,000 (it has a top speed of 78 mph and a range of between 80 and 120 miles) until 2003, while at one time Nissan offered an electric station wagon called the Altra.
In 2006, the Electric Drive Transportation Association estimated that there were between 60,000 and 76,000 low-speed electric vehicles on the road in the U.S., up from approximately 56,000 in 2004. There are 46 states in the U.S. that now allow low-speed electric vehicles on at least some public roads. Look for more states to enact pro-electric car legislation as environmentalists continue to lobby for the vehicles and consumer interest increases. Over the mid-term, watch for further advances in battery technology that may fuel vehicles for up to 300 miles per charge. That could make a tremendous difference in consumer interest.
In France, electric cars are popular enough to inspire plans for models from manufacturers including Societe de Vehicules Eclectriques (which ran a successful 2005 trial of eight experimental electric mail delivery vans for La Poste, the French postal service that now plans an all-electric fleet by 2013) and Renault SA. Both manufacturers are using expensive and safety-challenged lithium-ion batteries which may require further technological advances in order to be practical. SVE, for example, planned to begin with annual production of 1,000 vehicles in 2007 and expand to 20,000 as early as 2009.
Hybrids:
Toyota and Honda have been selling hybrid gasoline/electric cars in the U.S. since 2001. Sales of Toyota’s Prius in the U.S. reached more than 100,000 for the full year in both 2005 and 2006. During the first half of 2007 alone, sales soared to about 108,000. Toyota reached an impressive milestone in 2007, when total global sales of all of its hybrids during all of the years they had been available topped 1 million. For the long-term, Toyota hopes to further fuel hybrid sales through the introduction of advanced lithium ion batteries, as opposed to the nickel-metal-hydride batteries it now uses. However, lithium ion batteries faced multiple technical problems as of late 2007. A new model of the Prius, which uses the lithium-ion battery, has been delayed due to safety concerns. The batteries have shown a tendency to overheat, catch fire or explode. Therefore Toyota has delayed the release of the new model in the U.S. until early 2011. The delay also affects the release of hybrid versions of the Tundra pickup and the Sequoia SUV. The problem is causing a flurry of tests by battery manufacturers such as A123 Systems and Valence Technology to find ways to cool and stabilize these batteries.
According to J.D. Power & Associates, 13 hybrid models were on U.S. car lots in 2006. Hybrid sales accounted for 1.5% of total vehicle sales in the U.S. during 2006. In the first six months of 2007, about 180,000 hybrid cars and SUVs were sold in the U.S., which is about 3% of total sales.
The hybrid design places two engines in a vehicle, one a traditional internal combustion motor and the other electric. The traditional engine powers the car at startup and when accelerating, and charges the electric engine’s battery (separate from the gasoline-powered motor’s battery). When slowing down or idling, the standard engine shuts down and the electric motor takes over. The batteries are also charged when a car is rapidly decelerating, bleeding off forward momentum to power the generators. Gas mileage of up to 60 MPG of city driving can be achieved in some models. The downside: hybrid cars can cost $2,000 to $10,000 more than their standard powered counterparts, and many drivers have found fuel efficiency to be vastly lower than EPA estimates.
The base price for the 2008 Toyota Prius is $20,950. Toyota has enjoyed phenomenal demand for its Prius hybrid car. The Japanese firm responded by building a new, half-mile-long assembly line capable of turning out one Prius per minute. Toyota hopes to increase U.S. sales of the Prius to 600,000 vehicles yearly by 2012 or so.
Hybrids from the Big Three are on the roads and in the pipeline for additional releases. In mid-2004, Ford introduced a hybrid version of its Escape, a crossover SUV, which gets between 31 and 36 MPG. GM released a hybrid version of its full-size Chevy Silverado truck in 2005 that was advertised to provide a 10% to 12% improvement in fuel economy over other GM half-ton pickups.
Another successful hybrid is the Lexus RX400h, based on the extremely popular RX330 crossover. The hybrid version was launched in the U.S. in spring 2005, powered by its high-performance Hybrid Synergy Drive system. A pair of electric motors powers both front and rear wheels, in a system that can be configured to boost either total power or fuel economy. For 2007, the RX400h had a base price of $42,580; a large increase, as much as $5,000, over the price of the standard-power RX350, but that hasn’t stopped it from selling quickly. Toyota is rolling out additional hybrid models, both in the Lexus and Toyota brands, including the 2007 debut of the $100,000 luxury LS600h sedan, which combines a 12-cylinder combustion engine with an electric engine.
In December 2004, GM began a partnership with DaimlerChrysler and BMW in a hybrid technology joint venture. Instead of focusing on small models, the GM-DaimlerChrysler-BMW initiative is taking the technology GM developed for 335 buses currently on the streets of 18 U.S. cities and putting it into trucks before modifying it for smaller vehicles. Unlike the hybrid engines licensed by Toyota, the collaboration is developing “two mode” systems, which mount two relatively small electric motors inside the vehicle’s transmission housing. In addition, the system uses two sets of gears configured to assist large vehicles under highway driving demands such as quick acceleration and high loads and/or towing. The first models from this collaboration, the hybrid Chevy Tahoe and the GMC Yukon, are launching in late 2007 as 2008 models. “Displacement on demand” features will disable some of the gasoline engines’ cylinders when decelerating or cruising, thereby further increasing fuel efficiency by up to 20%.
Volkswagen, which has historically focused on clean diesel technology, is joining the hybrid party by collaborating with China’s Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation in the development of a minivan. The hybrid Touran minivan is expected to debut in 2008, in time for marketing at the Beijing Olympics. Nissan also plans to enter the hybrid arena by 2011.
The latest news in hybrids is Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). A plug-in hybrid automobile features an extra high-capacity battery bank that gives the vehicle a longer electric-only range than standard hybrids. These cars are designed so that they can be plugged into a standard electric outlet for recharging. The intent is to minimize or eliminate the need to use the car's gasoline engine and rely on the electric engine instead. Manufacturers are sitting up and taking notice. Toyota announced in July 2006 plans to develop plug-in hybrids. Daimler has been testing 40 of its Sprinter delivery vans developed Europe that utilize diesel-electric plug-in technologies.
Hydrogen Powered Cars:
See comments above
Advanced Diesel Cars:
During the early 1980s, when U.S. drivers were still reeling from Arab oil embargos and fuel rationing, diesel-powered cars were particularly popular in the U.S. Mercedes-Benz made a very high-quality line of diesels at that time, and about 75% of its cars sold in the U.S. were diesel-powered. Diesel cars unfortunately proved to be noisy, polluting and unreliable in many cases. However, new, advanced diesel engines appear to be making a comeback in the U.S.
In Europe, extremely fuel-efficient diesels, ranging from Volkswagens to BMWs, achieving from 40 to 99 MPG, account for about one-half of all cars sold. Diesels of this type tend to be small and very inexpensive to operate. This is important in Europe, where parking places are hard to find and fuel is quite expensive. One popular model is the Volkswagen Lupo 3L TDI. It runs on a three-cylinder, 1.2-liter engine and gets nearly 100 MPG. GM’s Opel subsidiary makes the popular Astra 1.7 diesel that achieves 64 MPG. European diesel fuel has long had lower sulfur content that that sold in the U.S., which makes the European version cleaner. New systems are also in place that utilize filters to reduce nitrogen-oxide emissions, such as Daimler’s BlueTec.
U.S. environmental regulators, particularly in California, are beginning to make encouraging comments about diesel technology. In late 2006, the U.S. government began requiring oil companies to produce the low-sulfur diesel. That, combined with cleaner emissions provided by systems like BlueTec and 40% better mileage then conventional gasoline engines, is making diesel powered cars an attractive commodity in the U.S. The McGraw-Hill Companies forecast that the market for diesel vehicles will rise from 3% in 2006 to 11.8% of total U.S. vehicle sales by 2015. J.D. Powers estimates that the number of diesel-powered vehicles sold in the U.S. will more than double by 2012. The fact is that diesel vehicles can be very efficient, and the diesel option can add less cost per vehicle than a hybrid option. A diesel engine creates more power than a gasoline engine from a similar amount of fuel.
Volkswagen already offers a diesel engine option to U.S. consumers for its New Beetle, Jetta, Passat and Touareg. The German company saw its U.S. diesel sales double in 2005. Jeep, a Chrysler vehicle, offers a diesel version of its small Liberty SUV. Honda is getting into the diesel act as well. It plans to introduce clean-diesel cars in the U.S., perhaps by 2009, that meet California’s soot and nitrous oxide emissions standards, and use 30% less fuel than gasoline engines. Honda’s 2.2CTDi diesel-powered Civic is already sold in the U.K., and the firm hopes to bring them to the U.S. in 2010. It is rated at 55.4 mpg combined city-highway mileage per gallon, compared to only 50 mpg for a hybrid-powered Civic and 33 mpg for a gasoline-powered Civic. Clearly, since it costs only small amount more than that gasoline-powered model, the diesel offers true advantages. Honda engineers are also working on a larger V6 clean diesel that will power bigger cars than the Civic.
Mercedes, a Daimler subsidiary, began selling its E320 CDI BlueTec diesel in the U.S. in 2004. With fuel economy rated at 23 MPG in the city and 32 on the highway, the car, which has a 2008 sticker price of about $52,000. It is not a pokey underperformer—this diesel Mercedes goes from zero to 60 miles per hour in a relatively quick 7.1 seconds. “CDI” stands for common-rail direct injection, a technology that also makes diesels allowable in the U.S. regulatory environment. It uses precise, electronic fuel injection that enables the engine to put out more power and less pollution while achieving better fuel economy.
Toyota, hoping to join the clean diesel party, acquired a 5.9% stake in Isuzu Motors in 2006. The acquisition affords Toyota Isuzu’s clean diesel technology.
Meanwhile, ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel was introduced at retail pumps in October 2006 in the U.S. New EPA emissions rules will be in effect across America in 2009 requiring that diesel engines meet exacting standards for low air pollution. The new clean diesel fuel eliminates 97% of sulfur emissions. While it has been impossible for auto makers to sell diesel-powered cars in all 50 U.S. states in the past, due to tough state-level emissions regulations in five states including California, new technologies combined with the new clean diesel fuels should ease the problems. A recent study by the EPA projects that Americans would burn as much as 1.4 million fewer barrels of oil daily if one-third of all light-duty vehicles in America were running on modern diesel engines. Put another way, that amount is about equal to U.S. daily oil imports from Saudi Arabia.
The advent of biodiesel, a fuel derived when glycerin is separated from vegetable oils or animal fats is altering the landscape in a small way. The resulting byproducts are methyl esters (the chemical name for biodiesel) and glycerin, which can be used in soaps and cleaning products. It has lower emissions than petroleum diesel and is currently used as an additive to that fuel since it helps with lubricity. A small, but growing, number of public filling stations are offering biodiesel, and it is also available from some petroleum distributors.
Companies making Biodiesel:
Eco-carbone:The company’s other major activity consists of producing biodiesels from the inedible grains of Jatropha, a promising oleaginous tree that grows in poor soil conditions and thus is not in competition with agricultural crops. Eco-Carbone has developed ten sites in China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Mali and Brazil, each of which currently produces about 15,000 tons of biodisels per year.
Gasoline Prices:
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