see also:

• underlying trends that are shaping our world today
• Trends 2010  (old)
• Trends 2008  (old)

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Top Trends for 2009:

In no particular order, here are the global macro trends that we think will be most significant in the coming year (2009):

1. Credit crisis of 2007/08 will continue on into 2009...this one is clear...but, how long will it last? how will it fundamentally change international finance?  Add your comments to our wiki...
2. Company defaults to rise:  "Company debt defaults may increase from Russia to Brazil and India as the global recession curbs export revenue, pushes down local currencies and makes banks reluctant to refinance, according to Standard Chartered Plc."
3. Deleveraging of Financial markets will continue.  In my opinion, this is the most destructive of all the trends.
4. Americans will increase their savings rate (with corresponding less consumption) in response to the credit crisis.  This will have profound effect on economies all over the globe, especially on China.
5. Risk of deflation in the US as Fed Funds target rate approaches zero (other analysts see the opposite risk of potential hyper inflation).  Add your comments..
6. Changes are happening in China.  We are especially concerned about the relations/ dependency between China & USA
7. Protectionism rises: free trade movement slows down in 2008:   A shift towards politics entails a shift towards the national, away from the global. This is already evident in finance. It is shown too in the determination to rescue national producers. But protectionist intervention is likely to extend well beyond the cases seen so far: these are still early days.
8. fiscal stimulus and crisis recovery 2009 ...as we will see increased use of Fiscal policy expected in massive doses...but will it have any effect at counteracting the deleveraging process?
9. US shifting from long term to short term financing of external debt:   read more here...http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/21/should-the-us-worry-about-the-drop-in-foreign-demand-for-us-long-term-assets/#more-4514
10. Expected glut in bond sales 2009...as countries all over the globe are expected to issue bonds (to raise money, to pay for fiscal stimulus), there is expected to be a recored amount of competition for investors attention.   This should drive yields up.  "ING forecasts emerging-market dollar debt sales will rise as much as 68 percent this year to a four-year high of $65 billion."...The $4.5 billion of emerging-market sales this week (01/2009)competed with $41 billion of corporate bond sales in the U.S. market, the most in eight months, as companies sought to refinance debt.
11. Monetary / Fiscal policy seen as ineffective...so expect un-conventional action from the Fed, such as quantitative easing
12. Rise in risk aversion - investors and companies are paying for safety (as negative Treasury yields have indicated)
13. Increased regulations:  Philosophical move away from "free markets" toward "bigger government".  How far will the pendulum swing?
14. nationalizations will increase as companies go bankrupt, and look for protection.  privatizations will increase as governments sell off assets to raise cash....which will be the more important force?
15. IMF will become more important (even though underfunded)...  WTO might be sidelined
16. USA is losing stature (military seen as less strong, economy less of a model)...will an Obama admin change this trend?
17. US dollar:  will it continue recent trend of strengthening during the crisis?  Or, will the weak dollar trend resume after the height of the crisis passes, and investors become concerned about excessive debt levels (which no doubt will be increased as we pay for fiscal stimulus packages proposed with the new administration)
18. Refinancing needs will increase....Source Bloomberg:Germany will issue a record 323 billion euros ($456 billion) of debt next year, including 149 billion euros of bonds maturing in more than one year, according to the Federal Finance Agency. France plans to sell a record 145 billion euros of securities.

    IMF will seek an additional funding of 156 billion USD....ReutersLONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Some $2.1 trillion of European company and bank debt matures in the next three years, raising “substantial refinancing risk”, Standard & Poor’s said on Tuesday The biggest refunding risks come in 2009, when $801 billion of debt matures, split between $576.8 billion of financial debt and $172.6 billion of non-financial debt, the vast majority of which is investment-grade. Another $51.6 billion of debt matures in 2009 that is not rated by S&P.Russia will be a borrower by March 2009

19. world where leverage remains scarce

20. philosophical debate of "markets vs government debate" will heat up

21. Marginal tax rates on the wealthier are on the way back up.

22. attitudes to pay & bonuses will change

23. Retirement benefits debate:  The credibility of moving pension savings from government-run pay-as-you-go systems to market-based systems will be far smaller than before

Table of Contents:

In addition to these global trends listed above, we are also interested in discussing how these trends will effect other areas.  For example, we are discussing...how will the credit crisis affect the...

1. Rise of purchasing power in emerging markets (will this continue post "great deleveraging"?).   No, middle class will shrink:   according to Martin Wolf: "The impact of the crisis will be particularly hard on emerging countries: the number of people in extreme poverty will rise, the size of the new middle class will fall and governments of some indebted emerging countries will surely default. Confidence in local and global elites, in the market and even in the possibility of material progress will weaken, with potentially devastating social and political consequences. Helping emerging economies through a crisis for which most have no responsibility whatsoever is a necessity."
2. inflation (was a big problem going into 2007...now is deflation more of a concern?)
3. Asian countries fight to keep their currencies undervalued vs the dollar (will this intensify? lead to trade wars?)
4. Clean-tech and environmentally conscious investing (this movement will continue in the face of economic crisis...but may be challenged due to lower oil prices...)
5. immigration (with US & Europe stumbling, how will that affect relations with immigrants?  will there be resentment?)
6. philanthropy &  Investing in socially good projects (will giving suffer as a result of the crash?)
7. tech trends to watch (will innovation jump in response to the recession?  or, will lack of funding lead to less?)

Crisis Watch:  

which countries might see crisis in 2009?

enter our discussion here:  Crisis watch

How far does the (global) credit-crisis have to go?

in January 2008 the International Monetary Fund published its $1tn estimate for the losses.

External Analysts from top analysts around the globe:

Emerging Markets predictions by Merril Lynch:

http://greenlightadvisor.com/glablog/2008/12/30/emerging-markets-in-2009/

video:  http://clipsyndicate.com/publish/video/777525?wpid=0

Global Insights  Predictions for 2009:

Global Insight presentation today on Top 10 Predictions for 2009.

1. The US Recession will be one of the deepest - if not the deepest - in the post war period
2. Worst downturn for Europe since early 1990s and worst in Japan since 1998
3. Growth in emerging markets will decelerate dramatically (de-coupling is a myth)
4. The Fed and other central banks will keep cutting interest rates
5. More financial stimuli are in the pipleline - some of them massive
6. Commodity prices will remain at depressed levels for much of the next year (note chemicals in the chart)
7. Inflationary fears will be replaced by concerns about deflation
8. Global imbalances will improve markedly in the next two years but probably temporary
9. The $ will remain relatively strong as long as the financial crisis continues
10. The single biggest risk facing the US and global economies is a timid response

Macro Trends to look for:

12/2008...looking forward:

1. consumer price disinflation
2. increased policy response both on the fiscal and rates front
3. deeper shift towards unconventional monetary measures in the US and perhaps beyond
4. equities and credit are both ‘cheap’ when judged against their fundamentals, but arguably above ‘trough valuations’
5. worst of the credit default cycle still ahead
6. continued ‘deleveraging’ of balance sheets in the financial sector
7. adjustment to a higher cost of capital
8. the recession that officially started a year ago is expected to reach its climax between Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 (peak, not end)
9. high uncertainty over the economic outlook (so, high risk betting in either direction)
10. elevated volatility

Bad Predictions:

• we collect bad predictions here:  bad predictions
• if you find any, please add to our list....

Trend Watching:

1. What direction is our economy heading?
2. Mega Trends
3. Tech trends
4. Finance & startup capital trends
5. New Developments:
6. Travel Trends 
7. Emerging market trends
8. Consumer Trends
9. Geographical Specific trends

1. large premium potential for bearing elevated risks

Are we missing something?

We are looking for help... this is a community page for open discussion about global trends.

My goal with the site is to create a community where investors and global business leaders can learn, collaborate, gain reputation by contributing content, and lead discussions.   The reputation of leading a discussion on a particular topic should help to find financing, find new jobs, or find new business partners,etc...  Contribute to GloboTrends wiki: